Bohol rice inventory

good for 169 days!

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA)—Amidst the already manifesting heat which soon will be fully sizzling El Niño and its projected tough times feeding families, assistant provincial Agriculturist Larry Pamugas has this to say: rice supply may only be for the next 169 days.

Or, if conservation measures are in place, it can stretch to 200 days of rice inventory.

Speaking during the first quarter meeting of the Provincial Disaster and Risk Reduction Management Council, Pamugas presented the bleak scenario as he proposed mitigation measures which the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist’s (OPA) implements for the long dry spell.

This too as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) through weather forecaster Engr. Leonardo Samar reported that they have tracked the high probability of the El Nino to start in June.

Showing the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, Samar said that the climate models predict a 0.5 degrees centigrade increase in ocean surface temperature in June to September, a 1.0 degrees centigrade increase from August to October and a possible 1.5 degrees increase in ocean temperature by October to January of 2027.

This then would be the peak of the El Nino, which the weather bureau calls very strong, and news writers categorize as ‘super,’ El Niño.

A 0.5 degrees increase in ocean surface temperature affects the trade winds and disrupts that climate patterns, causing droughts to the eastern Pacific regions and extreme rains, storms and floods in central and south Americas.

The effects of 1.0 or 1.5 degrees increase in ocean surface water, also brings exceptionally devastating impacts to the world weather.

For a leading rice producing province in the Visayas, the natural climate phenomena is even made more complicated with the Middle Eastern crisis which has affected the flow of petro-chemical-based products, steeping up the prices of fertilizers and food production inputs, and seeds.

In Bohol, with the El Nino potentially damaging the regular cropping season, National Irrigation Administration (NIA-7) has said they have moved the regular planting season to an earlier date, to still catch on the few remaining rains.

While the NIA said its water resources can still be used in this first cropping season, there would be problems when the next planting season arrives.

To this, at a per capita consumption of 105 kilograms or 0.28 kilograms a day for every Boholano, average consumption per day is 455,105 kilos /day. Add to this some 2,177 kilos for daily consumption for tourists, Bohol needs some 457,282 kilos of rice every day.

With only 47,244 hectares of ricelands planted at an average yield of 3.49 metric tons per hectare yield, the total harvest would be 165,881 metric tons.

Take from this some 10 percent for post-harvest losses, and we can only have some 148,393 metric tons of rice for milling.

At 65 percent milling recovery, Bohol only gets to have 96,455 metric tons of supply, or some 95,455,716 kilos net from that cropping harvest.

Take from this a daily per capita consumption of 455,105 kilos and you have between 170 to 200 days of rice inventory, before the rice bins go empty.

And if by then, another cropping season would have started its planting, the OPA said that of the ideal 52,595 hectares that have been identified for irrigation, only 10 percent can be irrigated, if the drought extends to 6 more months.

In fact, sustainable agriculture practitioners said that recovery for agriculture after a long drought goes beyond the first quarter when the drought is forecast to last. (PIAbohol)

LUGAW-LUGAWAN. While intending it to be a joke, Asst Provincial Agriculturist Larry Pamugas intends to stress the dire situation of Bohol’s rice supply, and the need to conserve to stretch it, should the El Nino come with its predicted strength. With less than 200 days of rice inventory, he proposed to Boholanos to start bringing food sufficiency preparations into the homes, if only to make sure that families will still have something to eat, when the dry spell starts to damage crops. (PIAbohol)

Despite El Niño, rains may

still come, says PAG-ASA

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA)—Despite the high probability forecast of the start of the El Niño in June, Boholano farmers, and even households which opt to do pocket gardens may still have a glimmer of hope: the weather bureau says there will still be rains until the end of the Habagat season.

With this, while rains may still come, agriculture authorities have urged Boholanos to bring food sufficiency issues at home and start planting anything that can be used to minimize buying, especially when grown food becomes scarce.

In his report to the Provincial El Niño Task Force, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) Alburquerque Doppler Radar Station Chief and weather forecaster Engr. Leonardo Samar said El Nino may officially make its presence felt beginning June until the first quarter of 2027.

But with the climate models they are looking at, it still shows between 9 to 17 tropical cyclones forming in the region which may bring the much needed rains.

Using Tropical Cyclones Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948 to 2015, it shows the possibility of 1 or 2 TCs in May 2026, another 1 or 2 TC is June 2026.

It also shows between 2 to 4 storms in July 2026, 3 to 4 cyclones in August 2026, 2 to 3 storms in September and 1 or 2 tropical storms in October 2026.

October is also officially the beginning of the southeast monsoon, which traditionally carries the rains to the archipelago.

Because of this too, the National Irrigation Administration in Region 7 has revised its cropping schedule to an earlier date and started releasing irrigation water last May 18, using the waters collected from its major reservoirs in Malinao and Bayongan Irrigations Systems.

NIA-7 authorities have assured that for this cropping season, the two dams can provide sufficient water services to the majority of their service areas, but the water reserves man not stretch long enough to serve the next cropping season.

In fact, according to NIA irrigation development officer Gerard Odtohan, of the total 21, 859.97 hectares of operational areas covered by the NIA irrigation services, 59% of these are El Nino vulnerable areas.

And of the 21 thousand hectares of operational areas, only 11,911 hectares are dedicated to rice production, according to Odtohan.

Malinaw Irrigation System (IS) in Pilar, for example keeps 4,376 hectares of operational area, some 3,555 hectares are planted with rice, but 81 percent of these areas are vulnerable to a long dry seasons when the reservoir depletes its water stocks due to usage and lack of rains to replenish the water.

Bayongan IS in San Miguel may have 3,721 operational areas, some 1,098 hectares are planted with rice, but still, 30% or these covered areas are drought vulnerable, according to Odtohan.

For its community irrigation systems (CIS) NIA reports 86% vulnerability for dry spells in Ubay’s rice lands served by Capayas IS; 63% of the rice lands in Benliw, also prone to damage.

Zamora Small Reservoir Irrigation System (SRIS) in Talibon has 53% of its 925 hectare coverage susceptible to crop damage with the dry spell; Ilaya SRIS in Ubay also covers 260 hectares but 53% of these areas are prone to drought ruin.

Worst cases are in Ilihan SRIS in Tubigon with a total vulnerability for its 178 hectares, while Tugas-Can-olin SRIS in Canduijay which has 250 hectares of irrigation coverage has 96 percent drought vulnerability, NIA reports. (PIAbohol)

NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. As the ENSO neutral conditions still prevail over the tropical pacific, PAG-ASA forecaster Engr Leonardo Samar reports above normal rains in May, near normal rains in June to August, above normal rains in September and near normal rainfall in October, enough for the Habagat to take over. (PIABohol)