59% of irrigation lands

vulnerable to ‘El Niño’

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA)— At the current forecast of the impending prolonged dry season brought about by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as monitored by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA), 59% of the total of 11,911 hectares of prime rice production lands are now identified as vulnerable to the long dry spell.

Of this, the 7,200 hectares under the national irrigation systems (NIS) coverage, 56% has been identified as susceptible areas to the drought, while of the Community Irrigation System (CIS), 66% could be vulnerable to the drought.

National Irrigation Administration in Region VII (NIA-7), NIA Irrigators Development Officer (IDO) Gerard Odtohan reported this during the recent EL Nino Task Force meeting in the Capitol’s CPG Hall recently.

Malinao Dam which has 4,376 hectares of operational area will have 3,555 hectares or 81% of its area vulnerable to the drought.

Bayongan Dam, with its 3,721 hectares of operational area, will have 1,098 hectares or some 30% of its areas are drought-vulnerable.

Capayas Dam, which has technical issues at the moment, has 1,022 hectares of operational area, 86% are still vulnerable to the dry season.

Benliw dam’s 365 hectares of irrigation areas has 6#% of the area vulnerable. Only half of the irrigation area in Talibon can be planted with 53% vulnerable.

Speaking at the Provincial El Nino Task Force Meeting at the CPG Hall in the Capitol, Odtohan pointed out that NIA has already revised its irrigation calendar, to make use of the still available rains, while the drought is to officially commence by next month.

Using a conservative 2023 data when Bohol averaged 3.6 metric tons of rice harvest per hectare of irrigated and rainfed areas, the potential lost harvest runs up to 25,298 metric tons of local supply.

If the data presented by NIA were to be strictly reckoned, the 2,370 hectares or rice areas is even made more concerning with the 4,832 other areas which can normally be served with the irrigation that would be dry this cropping owing to the forecasted drought.

At the same meeting however, PAG-ASA Alburquerque Doppler Radar Station chief and weather forecaster Engr Leonardo Samar showed a little glimmer of hope despite the data shown in weather forecasting models.

As the ENSO neutral conditions prevail over the tropical Pacific with most climate models suggesting that El Niño is likely to emerge in June-July-August with a 79 percent probability and this condition most likely to persist until early 2027, in Bohol for May 2026, PAG-SA sees above normal rainfall, according to Engr Samar.

In fact, by June to August, Bohol will still have near normal rainfall, and by September, there would be above normal rainfall forecast, he added.

By October, which is normally the start of the southeast monsoon season, Bohol would still have near normal rainfall, he said.

Using the same climate models, PAG-ASA said there are still possibly 1 to 2 tropical cyclones to hit May 2026, another 1 or 2 typhoons to hit June 2026 and some 2 to 4 storms to be expected in July.

There is a forecast of yet another 2 to 4 tropical cyclones hitting in August, 2 to 3 in September and 1 to 2 in October, which would be Habagat seasons by then.

Owing to the scenario, NIA has asked its farmer irrigators in the 269 irrigation associations under them to start an early cropping to make use of the rains, while still available. (PIAbohol)

SEEKING FOR ALTERNATIVE CROPS. NIA Irrigation Development Officer Gerard Odtohan said NIA has advised farmers to pick on high value commercial crops instead of rice, with irrigation water uncertain with the drought. (PIAbohol)

OPTIMISTIC. despite climate models saying El Nino could hit in June, PAG-ASA Bohol forecaster Leonardo Samar said there could still be above normal to near normal rains until October. (PIABohol)

Bohol reconstitutes El Niño TF

with 9 working committees

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA) –Governor Erico Aristotle Aumentado has ordered the activation of the reconstituted Provincial El Niño Task Force, with a clearly defined 9 working committees to map out specific interventions for focused functional concerns on community resilience.

In Executive Order No. 20-A, the governor has pushed the green button for the activation of the task force mandated to develop comprehensive disaster preparedness and rehabilitation plans for El Niño and La Niña.

Such is to provide systematic, holistic and results-driven intervention to help the public cope with the impending threats and mitigate its effects.

And when the National Action Plan Framework created to increase community resilience against the ill-effects of the prolonged droughts focused on five key sectors, Bohol authorities opted to put up 9 focused sectoral response working teams; each planning for consolidated, all expansive short and long interventions in areas which would be severely impacted by the stretched dry season.

For this, Aumentado’s Executive Order puts up working committees on agriculture, natural resources and water management, early warning system and information campaign, energy and power, public works, consumer protection, social services, health and rescue and relief, which is more extensive than the national action plan framework.

The National Action Plan Framework has five sectors namely: water supply, agriculture, electricity, health and public safety.

Issued in response to mitigating the supposedly pervasive effects of the drought associated with the warming of 1.5 degrees of the eastern Pacific waters, which according to state weather bureau reports based on climate models, could in an indication of a very strong El Niño which can last until the first quarter of 2027.

Last April 22, state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) has elevated the El Niño Watch to El Niño alert, with 79 percent forecast probability that the drought could start by June.

Climate monitors have noted a sea temperature rise of 0.5 percent above the normal temperature in the eastern Pacific.

According to the weather models which PAG-ASA is looking, the sea temperature rise between October to January 2027 may even go more or less 1.5 degrees higher than normal, reiterates weather forecaster Engr. Leonadro Samar.

“This may have possible adverse effects to agriculture, water resources, marine resources, human health and environment, the reason why a prompt, coordinated and sustained action from all concerned is warranted,” Gov. Aumentado said.

El Niño phenomenon, which is typically follows an irregular recurring climate pattern of two to seven years, observed in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, affects weather around the world, including the Philippines.

As the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, this weakens the trade winds and changes rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns all over the globe.

With long dry season usually brought by the El Niño, the governor believes this necessitates implementation of short and long term interventions to ensure food, water and energy security, while pushing for the need to safeguard livelihoods and strengthen the country’s overall disaster and climate resilience, especially with the continuing crisis in the Middle East. (PIABohol)