NDHS shows Region 7

population slowdown

TAGBILARAN CITY, Bohol, Nov 3 (PIA)— As if all stars line up for the region, the problem of bursting population could be in for a slowdown, this as factors contributing to population growth here show promising details.

Take Central Visayas’ Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for example.

TFR means the number of children a woman in her reproductive age can bear.

Data from the most recently disseminated 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) showed that in 2022, a woman in Region 7 would have an average of 2 births for a 3 year period before the survey.

This is promising because in 1993 National Demographic Survey, the figure was 4.4 in a 3-year period.

As shown in a graph about the TFR trends in the region prepared by the Philippine Statistics Authority, the average number of births exhibit a down-trend for every 5 years since 1993 NDS.

From a regional average of 4.4 births in 3 years in 1993, the figure slid down to 3.7 in 1998 NDHS, and then to 3.6 in the 2003 survey, according to Jessamyne Anne Alcazaren, during a National Statistics Month ender at the JJs Seafoods Village here.

And as if those were not enough, five years later, in 2008, from 3.6, the figure went further down to 3.3, which still reduced to 3.2 in the 2013 NDHS, Alcazaren continued.

By 2017, the figure has slid further down to 2.7, which even slipped to 2.0 in 2022.

Of the 4.4 TFR in 1993, only 2.9 were wanted fertility, the remaining 1.5 is that difference that the government saw which needs to be addressed.

A decade later in 2003 when the TFR was at 3.6, only 2.6% were wanted fertility, while another 1% remains underserved.

Two decades later or in 2013, the TFR was 3.2, and only 2.2% were wanted fertility, still a 1% remain to be underserved, considering that family planning methods were already available but still has to be mainstreamed.

In 2022, at 2.0 TFR, only 1.4% were wanted fertility, but the remaining unserved need has shrunk to .6%.

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in the Philippines in 2017, there are 2.6 million married women and 5.1 million unmarried women who wanted to use family planning, but were not able to do so, pointing out the 2017 NDHS.

As to the survey as pointed out by PSA, in 2017 for example, the median birth interval was 37.6 months or an average of one childbirth for a childbearing woman in every 3 years and one month or 37.6 months.

The ever-receding TFR in fact is showing something that the government has implemented that is affecting the figures.

Whether the availability of a more open access to family planning methods, nobody could say.

But then, the NDHS as Alcazaren pointed out, showed that in 2022, the average childbirth for a woman in her reproductive age in the region has even spaced out further to 46.4 months equivalent to 3 years and 8 months.

This means, a woman here would opts not to be pregnant until the child she is rearing has grown 3 years and 8 months.

This, plus teenage pregnancy data in the region would show that Central Visayas pegged a 10 % of women aged 15-49 years getting pregnant in the 1993 NDS, a figure which even zoomed to 22% in 2003 NDHS, 25% in 2013 NDHS, 22% in the 2017 NDHS and suddenly dove to 5 in the 2022 NDHS. (PIABohol)

SLOWDOWN. If fertility were to remain consistent at current levels, a woman would bear an average of 2 children in her lifetime, making Central Visayas peg a “below replacement level,” which roughly means births are slower than recorded deaths, hints PSA Bohol statistician Jessamyne Anne Alcazaren, during the data dissemination October 31 at the Jjs Seafoods Village, Tagbilaran City. (PIABohol)