59% of irrigation lands

vulnerable to ‘El Niño’

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA)— At the current forecast of the impending prolonged dry season brought about by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as monitored by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA), 59% of the total of 11,911 hectares of prime rice production lands are now identified as vulnerable to the long dry spell.

Of this, the 7,200 hectares under the national irrigation systems (NIS) coverage, 56% has been identified as susceptible areas to the drought, while of the Community Irrigation System (CIS), 66% could be vulnerable to the drought.

National Irrigation Administration in Region VII (NIA-7), NIA Irrigators Development Officer (IDO) Gerard Odtohan reported this during the recent EL Nino Task Force meeting in the Capitol’s CPG Hall recently.

Malinao Dam which has 4,376 hectares of operational area will have 3,555 hectares or 81% of its area vulnerable to the drought.

Bayongan Dam, with its 3,721 hectares of operational area, will have 1,098 hectares or some 30% of its areas are drought-vulnerable.

Capayas Dam, which has technical issues at the moment, has 1,022 hectares of operational area, 86% are still vulnerable to the dry season.

Benliw dam’s 365 hectares of irrigation areas has 6#% of the area vulnerable. Only half of the irrigation area in Talibon can be planted with 53% vulnerable.

Speaking at the Provincial El Nino Task Force Meeting at the CPG Hall in the Capitol, Odtohan pointed out that NIA has already revised its irrigation calendar, to make use of the still available rains, while the drought is to officially commence by next month.

Using a conservative 2023 data when Bohol averaged 3.6 metric tons of rice harvest per hectare of irrigated and rainfed areas, the potential lost harvest runs up to 25,298 metric tons of local supply.

If the data presented by NIA were to be strictly reckoned, the 2,370 hectares or rice areas is even made more concerning with the 4,832 other areas which can normally be served with the irrigation that would be dry this cropping owing to the forecasted drought.

At the same meeting however, PAG-ASA Alburquerque Doppler Radar Station chief and weather forecaster Engr Leonardo Samar showed a little glimmer of hope despite the data shown in weather forecasting models.

As the ENSO neutral conditions prevail over the tropical Pacific with most climate models suggesting that El Niño is likely to emerge in June-July-August with a 79 percent probability and this condition most likely to persist until early 2027, in Bohol for May 2026, PAG-SA sees above normal rainfall, according to Engr Samar.

In fact, by June to August, Bohol will still have near normal rainfall, and by September, there would be above normal rainfall forecast, he added.

By October, which is normally the start of the southeast monsoon season, Bohol would still have near normal rainfall, he said.

Using the same climate models, PAG-ASA said there are still possibly 1 to 2 tropical cyclones to hit May 2026, another 1 or 2 typhoons to hit June 2026 and some 2 to 4 storms to be expected in July.

There is a forecast of yet another 2 to 4 tropical cyclones hitting in August, 2 to 3 in September and 1 to 2 in October, which would be Habagat seasons by then.

Owing to the scenario, NIA has asked its farmer irrigators in the 269 irrigation associations under them to start an early cropping to make use of the rains, while still available. (PIAbohol)

SEEKING FOR ALTERNATIVE CROPS. NIA Irrigation Development Officer Gerard Odtohan said NIA has advised farmers to pick on high value commercial crops instead of rice, with irrigation water uncertain with the drought. (PIAbohol)

OPTIMISTIC. despite climate models saying El Nino could hit in June, PAG-ASA Bohol forecaster Leonardo Samar said there could still be above normal to near normal rains until October. (PIABohol)