El Niño to worsen before

End of 2026 – PAG-ASA

TAGBILARAN CITY, Bohol (PIA)—If you think by surviving the stifling heat of September, we have been through the drought, think again.

The worst is yet to come, and it is not just a month-long of arid season, reveals government weather forecaster from the state weather bureau at the recent Kapihan sa PIA.

Citing the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration’s (PAG-ASA) most recent El Niño Advisory No 5 issued October 7, weatherman Engr Leonardo Samar said a strong to very strong El Niño is now present in the Tropical Pacific, which will bring longer stretches of dry seasons until the first half of 2027 and may reach its peak before the end of 2026.

“Motaas pa gyud siya, gikan sa strong to very strong, as present models and expert judgement all indicate a strengthened El Nino before the end of 2026,” Samar bared.

And for comparison, if you think September, when the heat felt all over Bohol caused 190 million of damaged in crops was all it is, that was just one month of way below normal.

So what accounts for the rains that parts of Bohol are currently having?

As to Samar, the two seasons: the southwest monsson (Habagat) and the northwest monsoon (Amihan) has played critical roles in bringing in some patches of rains that Bohol is now experiencing.

Beyond that, the development of inter tropical convergence zones outside of the Philippine area of responsibility and the easterlies have pulled some of the rain inducing clouds in some areas over the country, he explained.

While the El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which may lead to adverse impacts, including dry spells and droughts in some areas of the country, above normal rainfall conditions may still occur during the passage of tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing weather systems, he summed.

In PAG-ASA’s latest six-month climate outlook for October 2026 to March 2027, as presented during the 200th Climate Outlook Forum last September 23, 2026, the forecast was below-normal rainfall would be expected in parts of the Visayas in October to November 2026.

By way below normal, that means there will be a noted reduction of normal standards rainfall from 20 to 60 percent during the period.

By December 2026, the situation is forecast to worsen as a way below normal when the rainfall is reduced to over 60 percent of the normal rainfall.

According to the weatherman, the situation still stretches to January when the condition eases to below normal rainfall, but that is still below 20 to 60% less rainfall.

But that is no relief either, because according to the state weather bureau in its outlook, February and March of next year would still have way over 60 percent of reduced rainfall forecast.

According to PAG-ASA, December 2026–March 2027 would have a significantly lower amount of rainfall, increasing drought and water-shortage risks in the Visayas. (PIAbohol)

LONG WAY TO GO. With predictions that the El Niño is still going to stretch to the first half of 2027, PAG-ASA Bohol Engr Leonard Samar said the current rains should get farmers into planting using the rain water so that by the time the extreme heat comes, irrigation authorities can maximize the water rations to farms as finishing water to spur a good harvest. (PIAbohol)