El Nino chances: 79%

says PAG-ASA Bohol

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA)—This early, with a probability of 75 percent Bohol could experience unusually warm climates, high changes of grass fires, droughts and decreased agricultural productivity starting in the next two months: the characteristics of El Nino phenomenon.

No less than Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) weather forecaster and Alburquerque Doppler Radar Station chief Leonardo Samar bared this at the recent Kapihan sa PIA.

However, the local weather station head was quick to add that the El Nino has not come yet.

Coming in amidst the series of grass fire alerts in Bohol’s cogon-covered hills, including a significant portion of The Alicia Panoramic Park, PAG-ASA said in its March 25 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Watch, which is also based on the alerts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and consolidated data from global monitoring centers in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggest the 55 percent chance of a probability of an El Nino in the next six months.

However, by the following month, the state weather bureau has elevated its El Nino Watch into El Nino Alert.

Last week, in April 22, 2026, experts using recent model data shared that the El Nino has become stronger, that PAG-ASA issued El Nino Alert, the Boholano weather forecaster said.

El Nino Alert, he explained, is issued in the condition that there is already 79 percent chance of El Nino in the next two to three months.

An El Nino Watch is issued when the conditions show a 55 percent El Nino probability within the next 6 months, he added.

Using the latest El Nino Alert, Samar said the office pegs the El Nino to hit in June to August and could persist until early 2027.

So, what really happens during an El Nino?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon in which parts of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This affects weather patterns around the world.

El Niño happens when warm ocean water spreads eastward across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which disrupts normal wind and ocean patterns.

Normally, there is a constant east-to-west winds, from the northeast in the northern hemisphere and southeast in the southern hemisphere, that blow toward the equator in a region called the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ).

This happens because the uneven heating of earth where the equator which is nearer the sun, is hotter than the polar regions, and the earth’s rotation affects these winds.

During normal conditions, these trade winds push warm water toward Southeast Asia (including the Philippines), bringing rain.

But, in an El Niño, the trade winds weaken, and warm water shifts toward the Americas and colder air in the Pacific could not produce much evaporation that clouds can hardly form.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm and the weakened trade winds could not push enough warm water toward Southeast Asia, and the warm water shifts back to the Americas, where the colder air of western coast of South America become rain machines.

With this, there is drier and hotter conditions causing heat waves caused by reduced rainfall to drought conditions, and there could be water shortage in the Philippines, which affects agriculture, while heavier rains, storms and flooding occur in parts of South America.

Meanwhile, Bohol PAG-ASA said there is, however, probability that the season of the southern monsoon in October to bring in the needed heat respite as the Habagat could trigger rains in small parts of the country. (PIABohol)