Bohol rice inventory

good for 169 days!

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA)—Amidst the already manifesting heat which soon will be fully sizzling El Niño and its projected tough times feeding families, assistant provincial Agriculturist Larry Pamugas has this to say: rice supply may only be for the next 169 days.

Or, if conservation measures are in place, it can stretch to 200 days of rice inventory.

Speaking during the first quarter meeting of the Provincial Disaster and Risk Reduction Management Council, Pamugas presented the bleak scenario as he proposed mitigation measures which the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist’s (OPA) implements for the long dry spell.

This too as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) through weather forecaster Engr. Leonardo Samar reported that they have tracked the high probability of the El Nino to start in June.

Showing the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, Samar said that the climate models predict a 0.5 degrees centigrade increase in ocean surface temperature in June to September, a 1.0 degrees centigrade increase from August to October and a possible 1.5 degrees increase in ocean temperature by October to January of 2027.

This then would be the peak of the El Nino, which the weather bureau calls very strong, and news writers categorize as ‘super,’ El Niño.

A 0.5 degrees increase in ocean surface temperature affects the trade winds and disrupts that climate patterns, causing droughts to the eastern Pacific regions and extreme rains, storms and floods in central and south Americas.

The effects of 1.0 or 1.5 degrees increase in ocean surface water, also brings exceptionally devastating impacts to the world weather.

For a leading rice producing province in the Visayas, the natural climate phenomena is even made more complicated with the Middle Eastern crisis which has affected the flow of petro-chemical-based products, steeping up the prices of fertilizers and food production inputs, and seeds.

In Bohol, with the El Nino potentially damaging the regular cropping season, National Irrigation Administration (NIA-7) has said they have moved the regular planting season to an earlier date, to still catch on the few remaining rains.

While the NIA said its water resources can still be used in this first cropping season, there would be problems when the next planting season arrives.

To this, at a per capita consumption of 105 kilograms or 0.28 kilograms a day for every Boholano, average consumption per day is 455,105 kilos /day. Add to this some 2,177 kilos for daily consumption for tourists, Bohol needs some 457,282 kilos of rice every day.

With only 47,244 hectares of ricelands planted at an average yield of 3.49 metric tons per hectare yield, the total harvest would be 165,881 metric tons.

Take from this some 10 percent for post-harvest losses, and we can only have some 148,393 metric tons of rice for milling.

At 65 percent milling recovery, Bohol only gets to have 96,455 metric tons of supply, or some 95,455,716 kilos net from that cropping harvest.

Take from this a daily per capita consumption of 455,105 kilos and you have between 170 to 200 days of rice inventory, before the rice bins go empty.

And if by then, another cropping season would have started its planting, the OPA said that of the ideal 52,595 hectares that have been identified for irrigation, only 10 percent can be irrigated, if the drought extends to 6 more months.

In fact, sustainable agriculture practitioners said that recovery for agriculture after a long drought goes beyond the first quarter when the drought is forecast to last. (PIAbohol)

LUGAW-LUGAWAN. While intending it to be a joke, Asst Provincial Agriculturist Larry Pamugas intends to stress the dire situation of Bohol’s rice supply, and the need to conserve to stretch it, should the El Nino come with its predicted strength. With less than 200 days of rice inventory, he proposed to Boholanos to start bringing food sufficiency preparations into the homes, if only to make sure that families will still have something to eat, when the dry spell starts to damage crops. (PIAbohol)