Despite El Niño, rains may

still come, says PAG-ASA

TAGBILARAN CITY Bohol (PIA)—Despite the high probability forecast of the start of the El Niño in June, Boholano farmers, and even households which opt to do pocket gardens may still have a glimmer of hope: the weather bureau says there will still be rains until the end of the Habagat season.

With this, while rains may still come, agriculture authorities have urged Boholanos to bring food sufficiency issues at home and start planting anything that can be used to minimize buying, especially when grown food becomes scarce.

In his report to the Provincial El Niño Task Force, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) Alburquerque Doppler Radar Station Chief and weather forecaster Engr. Leonardo Samar said El Nino may officially make its presence felt beginning June until the first quarter of 2027.

But with the climate models they are looking at, it still shows between 9 to 17 tropical cyclones forming in the region which may bring the much needed rains.

Using Tropical Cyclones Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948 to 2015, it shows the possibility of 1 or 2 TCs in May 2026, another 1 or 2 TC is June 2026.

It also shows between 2 to 4 storms in July 2026, 3 to 4 cyclones in August 2026, 2 to 3 storms in September and 1 or 2 tropical storms in October 2026.

October is also officially the beginning of the southeast monsoon, which traditionally carries the rains to the archipelago.

Because of this too, the National Irrigation Administration in Region 7 has revised its cropping schedule to an earlier date and started releasing irrigation water last May 18, using the waters collected from its major reservoirs in Malinao and Bayongan Irrigations Systems.

NIA-7 authorities have assured that for this cropping season, the two dams can provide sufficient water services to the majority of their service areas, but the water reserves man not stretch long enough to serve the next cropping season.

In fact, according to NIA irrigation development officer Gerard Odtohan, of the total 21, 859.97 hectares of operational areas covered by the NIA irrigation services, 59% of these are El Nino vulnerable areas.

And of the 21 thousand hectares of operational areas, only 11,911 hectares are dedicated to rice production, according to Odtohan.

Malinaw Irrigation System (IS) in Pilar, for example keeps 4,376 hectares of operational area, some 3,555 hectares are planted with rice, but 81 percent of these areas are vulnerable to a long dry seasons when the reservoir depletes its water stocks due to usage and lack of rains to replenish the water.

Bayongan IS in San Miguel may have 3,721 operational areas, some 1,098 hectares are planted with rice, but still, 30% or these covered areas are drought vulnerable, according to Odtohan.

For its community irrigation systems (CIS) NIA reports 86% vulnerability for dry spells in Ubay’s rice lands served by Capayas IS; 63% of the rice lands in Benliw, also prone to damage.

Zamora Small Reservoir Irrigation System (SRIS) in Talibon has 53% of its 925 hectare coverage susceptible to crop damage with the dry spell; Ilaya SRIS in Ubay also covers 260 hectares but 53% of these areas are prone to drought ruin.

Worst cases are in Ilihan SRIS in Tubigon with a total vulnerability for its 178 hectares, while Tugas-Can-olin SRIS in Canduijay which has 250 hectares of irrigation coverage has 96 percent drought vulnerability, NIA reports. (PIAbohol)

NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. As the ENSO neutral conditions still prevail over the tropical pacific, PAG-ASA forecaster Engr Leonardo Samar reports above normal rains in May, near normal rains in June to August, above normal rains in September and near normal rainfall in October, enough for the Habagat to take over. (PIABohol)